When Predictive Analytics is Just Forecasting

The term Big Data and Predictive Analytics are quite the rage these days. Colleges and universities are offering degrees in analytics. Consultants are offering services and dashboard software to help their clients be on top of their Big Data and Analytic game. Companies are creating Analytic departments led by either managers, directors, and even VPs. There is a fair amount of buzz in this area.

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More Deming: System of Profound Knowledge

After the airing of the NBC White Paper, "If Japan Can... Why Can't We?, on June 24, 1980, W. Edwards Deming quickly went from an obscure quality and statistical consultant to a vertible business celebrity. Because of that White Paper, Ford Motor Company engaged Deming to help them improve. Ford was incurring billions in losses. Product quality at Ford was lacking both poor quality design, poor production quality. and poor product reliability. Deming is credited with contributing to Ford's improvement to become the most profitable US based auto company in a few short years.

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Variation vs "The Number"

We never cease to be amazed in our work with the consistency with which people overlook variation. It must be ingrained in our society. It may even be embedded in our genetic code. People want to be given, and only want to deal with, one number i.e the point estimate. They do not want to be bothered with having to comprehend ranges or even worse standard deviations.

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